Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

I’ll tip my hat to the new constitution

Take a bow for the new revolution

Smile and grin at the change all around me

Pick up my guitar and play

Just like yesterday

Then I’ll get on my knees and pray

We don’t get fooled again

36 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”

  1. I am curious as to which races are going to surprise us out of nowhere this year with an angry (righteously) electorate.

    MD-06, CA-03, CA-26, CA-46, MN-02, SC-01, or maybe something totally shocking like one of the eastern Washington districts or NY-03? Am also hoping for Sam Bennett in PA-15.

    Here in Virginia, I think Judy Feder has the best shot outside of Gerry Connolly to pull an upset. VA-10 is actually less Republican than either VA-02 or VA-05. Obama will win VA-10 by a decent margin — if Obama/Warner voters pull the lever for Judy, she will win. I am still cautiously optimistic about the full-on Virginia sweep — VA-Pres, VA-Sen, VA-11, VA-10, VA-02, VA-05. Here’s to hoping.

  2. Those two will decide if the 60 seat threshold is reached or not. I’m increasingly confident that OR, NC and MN will join VA, NM, CO and NH as pickups. That makes 58. GA and KY would be gravy, but would mean Lieberman could be put out on his ear completely.

  3. Could someone expand the forest fire controversy section on Henry Brown’s Wikipedia article? It only has a small mention so far, and how much this is reported will undoubtedly influence undecided voters trying to find information on the candidates right before the election.

  4. Obama needs to perform strongly in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Not so much to ensure victory but because in 2010 Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA), Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) and Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) all come up for relection and maybe retirement would be an easier decision to reach if Obama won by double digits in each of the states. Same goes for Iowas Chuck Grassley though I suspect he could get reelcted but who knows.

    In the Senate I think Presidentail turnout could help force retirements in:

    FL, GA (if we knock both Chambliss and McCain out Isakson might eye a non federal office or leave all together), IA, MO, NH, OH, and PA.

    So all the more reason to keep at it.  

  5. KOLYFOYNYA (as The Governator calls us)!

    Prop 4: It’s BACK! Gawd, I hope we can defeat this once & for all so the radical right stops chipping away at Roe v. Wade.

    Prop 8: This affects me personally, so I’m scared. If we defeat this, we secure marriage equality in the nation’s largest state. Think about that.

    CA-46: I love Debbie Cook. I’ve been working my heart out for her. I’ll be walking for her again this weekend. Wish me luck, and don’t forget to help Debbie cross this finish line successfully!

    CA-50: I know this district. I worked this district for Francine Busby in 2006. It’s winnable. And yes, I think Nick Leibham is a legit candidate. Let’s win here! 😀

  6. My wish list for 2008:

    Jewish Democrats are elected in Alabama (Segall), Wyoming (Trauner), and Alaska (Berkowitz).

    Out-of-the-closet lesbian is elected in South Carolina (Ketner).

    THE netroots candidate (Burner) wins.

    Member of religious left (Perriello) defeats anti-Muslim bigot (Goode).

    Blind rabbi/psychologist (Shulman) defeats pro-intelligent design nut.

    Lawyer (Grayson) who promises to put criminal Bush administration officials in jail is elected.

    Good Democrats (Lord, Brown, Markey) defeat icons of the conservative movement (Shadegg, McClintock, Musgrave).

    Democrat (Cook) who supports single-payer system and tough car emission standards is elected in Orange County, California.

    Champion of light rail (Tinklenberg) defeats reactionary McCarthyist nutcase (Bachmann).

    Progressive Democrat (Himes) defeats last Republican in New England (Shays).

    Former textile mill worker (Kissell) defeats multimillionaire (Hayes).

    Single-payer fan and Responsible Plan Endorser (Massa) defeats gun-toting nut (Kuhl) in New York’s most conservative district.

    Black Democrat with strange name elected president.

  7. I think this is a great shot to elect a very good candidate to replace a awful congressman. The DCCC just put up their second ad, it’s a very winnable race and I think we can do it.

  8. In AL-02 things seem to be moving in Bobby Bright’s direction, so what’s up in AL-03?

    Also have not seen many numbers out of NC-08 in a while, and what’s up in KY-02, MI-06, NV-02, and LA-04?

    And of course, I’m loving the coverage of the GA-Senate Race!

    Keep up to good work.

  9. A true toss up. Haven’t seen a single poll this year.

    The longer we keep this hand-drawn gem of DeLay, the more we can rub of in.

    That new Dccc ad is troubling me…

  10. Josh Segall can absolutely knock off Mike Rogers here.  Polling data is scarce, but the most recent independent poll put Josh within single digits with more than a month to go.  Given the demographics of the district and the tenor of recent economic events, Josh is almost certainly on the brink of an improbable upset.

    Consider this:  In 2002—one of the best possible years to be a Republican—Democratic nominee Joe Turnham lost this district by a razor-thin margin of 3,800 votes. And this was after the DCCC withdrew its support within the final weeks of the campaign, forcing Turnham off the air.  The moral of the story, clearly, is that this district is a winnable one if the necessary resources are there.

    Six years later, let’s not make the same mistake that the Democrats made with Joe Turnham’s race.  If you can dig any deeper, this is the place your contribution will make a difference.  Go to https://secure.actblue.com/con… to join the cause.

    And if the Bush-McCain economy has put a pinch on your disposable income, throw Josh a vote (or two) on this poll and help decide where someone else’s $6,400 will be spent:  http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

    If Josh stays on the air through election day, he wins.

  13. will be won in PA, OH, VA and FL. The dreadnaught John McCain is plying these waters and that makes me nervous.

    KY-02

    MN-03

    CT-04

    AL-05

    LA-06

    NC-08

    PA-11

    NY-26

    Nancy Boyda.

    I have seen a poll in LA-06 where Cazayoux (D) is trailing.

    NY state senate.

    WA and NC gov races.

  14.   48-37 in favor of Brown.  Apparently, many black voters are still undecided in this race.  I think we have a chance.  We only have a chance because Ketner has the big money.

  15. As a former resident of what is now NY-26, I’m eager to see that district flip.  I’m not sure what to expect; Alice Kryzan is a newcomer to politics but seems to have made a good first impression.    

    1. There seems to be a bit less polling on the supposed longshot districts this year than there was in 2006.  With the environment for republicans even worse this year I think we’re in for a few big surprises.  

      The closest thing to longshot wins we had in 2006 were

      IA-02 and NH-01.  Others that may qualify as upsets were

      NY-19 and TX-23.  I think we can pickoff a good 3-5 seats where the general consensus is that the races are likely republican or worse for us.  I’ve got a good feeling that Obama’s GOTV operation on election day is going to swing a lot of races our way.

    2. OK, so I’m a little biased. Still, Debbie Cook is for real. If I didn’t think she was a great candidate with a good chance of winning, I wouldn’t be pouring my time & money into this race.

    3. you qualify as surprises.

      I think we’ll win upsets in VA-05 and SC-01. It would be really amazing to beat a bigot with a progressive international aid worker and a idiot with a successful progressive businesswomen who happens to be gay.  

    4. I see little polling in VA 10.  Also I think Judy Feder hasn’t gotten much–any?–help from the DCCC.  My sense was that the demographics of the two counties in question had changed a good deal, but the few polls I’ve seen don’t suggest much movement.  Judy is an old grad-school pal of mine, and I’d love to see her win, but Wolf seems popular–maybe a bit like a Collins situation in ME.  I hope you’re right that she has a chance.

  16. If I had to pare it down, it’s WY-AL (Trauner) and NJ-05 (Shulman). What the hey, I’ll throw in MN-03 (Madia).

    And it would be great to see the “us v. them” retrogrades lose: Goode (VA-05) and Bachman (MN-06). Restoring civil discussion to our politics would be a great advancement for this nation, regardless of political point of view.

  17. This has been largely under the radar because of all the buzz around California’s Prop 8, but apparently our legislature thinks that when we voted down a gay marriage ban in 2006, we didn’t really mean it.

    The one caveat of good news here is that with outside forces so tied up in California, the initiative is keeping a fairly low profile.  So while normally the agents of hate out of the Mormon Church would be pouring millions from over the northern border to try and see this pass, this year it’s much more dependent on local conditions.

    The thing that REALLY concerns me about this, though, is that I know several people who do support civil unions who are voting for Prop 102 because it does only restrict gay marriage, not other gay unions.  While this does speak to the victory that we achieved in 2006 and offers a silver lining if this passes, it makes me fear this battle might already be lost.

    On the web: http://votenoprop102.com/web/i…

    And PS, Please tell me that this Yes on 102 ad make you want to barf as well:

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